Just-In-Time Energy
https://trendmacro.com/system/files/reports/20150427TrendMacroWarren-8W.pdf
Monday, April 27, 2015
As crude hits the top of our predicted 2015 trading range, we look ahead to $15-$40 oil.
US Resource Stocks
Oil
Oil is now subject to "just-in-time production" and kaizen, a productivity revolution reminiscent of the Japanese manufacturing productivity surge of the 1970s and 1980s. This productivity, coupled with competition from alternative fuels for transportation borne by ever more efficient batteries, onboard lighter all-electric vehicles, means oil prices will eventually revert to their historical norm of $15 - $40 in today's dollars. This doesn’t mean that less oil will be consumed in the future, nor that oil producers can't grow and prosper. But the old model of mega-projects has passed, and the future belongs to the nimble.