Iran: Sitzkrieg, Not Blitzkrieg

The war against Iran is now a siege, with a blockade of Iran's oil exports and food and other imports. It is at risk of collapsing into chaos within days or weeks. As Iran runs out of oil storage almost immediately, it will have to shut in its wells. They will not "explode" as Trump claims, but these obsolete wells will likely be damaged beyond repair. Iran's negotiators are dominated by hard-liners, but that is better than the incoherent team originally fielded. Social chaos may upwell a more compliant team. Developed nations who depend on petroleum from the Strait have two months of reserves to fall back on. Europe and California are especially disadvantaged because of their reliance on imported refined products, having crippled their own refining in pursuit of "zero carbon." When the siege ends, Iran's oil exports will stay off the market for years while they rebuild, but this can easily be made up out of swing capacity in other Gulf nations, especially now that UAE has left OPEC. US producers appear to have little interest in increasing production in the face of temporary bumps in demand and price.