On the September FOMC: It's Chaos I Tell You, It's Chaos!

All exactly as predicted. A 25 bp rate cut, and the "dot plots" move down one additional rate cut for 2025, 2026 and 2027. Miran's absurdist 2025 "dot plot" at 2-7/8% for 2025 was what moved the median down (but it doesn't explain the other years). Market expectations coming in, and as of this writing, expect much deeper cuts in 2026 and 2027 than given in the "dot plots." Powell specifically disavowed any blessing of those expectations. Today's cut was explained as triggered by a shift in the balance of risks toward jobs, but that is contradicted in the "dot plots" for unemployment, which actually improved. At the one-year mark of the onset of this easing cycle, when the consensus was that it would ring in a recession, economic and market performance have in fact been excellent.