What is the Tariff Endgame?

After months of extravagant promises from the Trump administration, no trade deals. Trump has weakened his bargaining position by negotiating against himself with delays and other concessions. What deals he claims have been done, such as the UK, Vietnam and Indonesia, show no reciprocity that would attract others to come to the bargaining table. Vietnam, by Trump’s own admission, has completely opened its economy to the US, but Trump will still tariff US imports at 20%. And why would any nation do a deal when the Supreme Court is likely to strike down the IEEPA tariffs soon? Trump will come back with smaller and narrower tariffs, which will be high by historic standards but will seem low to markets. Trump will impose more trade restrictions against China, which will cause China to dump exports on other wealthy nations – which will have no choice but to protect themselves with trade barriers. Trump can form his “coalition of the unwilling” against China with or without deals.