Are We Feeling Liberated Yet?

Trump has imposed a baseline tariff of 10% on all countries, and additional reciprocal tariffs. The reciprocal tariffs plus the baseline equal half the US Trade Representative’s estimate of their total tariff and non-tariff barriers against the US. There are very significant exceptions, including energy, USMCA-compliant articles from Canada and Mexico, steel aluminum and autos already tariffed by Trump, and any article from a trading partner listed in the Harmonized Tariff Schedule. The baseline tariffs take effect on April 5, and the reciprocal on April 9, at least opening up the possibility that nations could lower their trade barriers to avoid them if they act quickly. This is anti-growth, but it is taking place in the context of other policy initiatives that are pro-growth. If this year’s stock market correction was driven by tariff uncertainty, at least the uncertainty is over.