What is Trump’s Mandate? On Day One, It’s Not Tariffs

https://trendmacro.com/system/files/reports/20250121trendmacroluskin-hy.pdf
Donald L. Luskin
Tuesday, January 21, 2025
In a firehose of Day One policy moves, Trump is handling tariffs with appropriate caution.
US Macro
Trump’s slew of executive orders on Day One mostly undoes a slew of executive orders under Biden. But they, and his inaugural speech reveal his economic policy priorities as closely in line with the wishes of the electorate. Growth potential is augmented by his addressing the crisis in affordability with deregulation (especially energy) designed to lower prices, and cutting taxes to bolster disposable income. Closing the border cuts against that growth potential. Tariffs had no role in Day One. Trump is handling them with caution, probably recognizing that you can’t cut taxes by raising taxes. But he argues that foreign nations pay those new taxes, and has floated creating an External Revenue Service to collect them. This raises the prospect of other trade-related taxes, potentially on foreign holdings of US securities, as advocated by CEA-nominee Miran.