Oh Come All Ye Faithless

Very credible scenarios for battleground state outcomes point to winning Electoral College margins for either candidate of only two votes. Just two "faithless electors" who vote for a candidate other than the one to whom he is pledged could reverse the outcome. Just one could create a tie, driving a "contingent election" that would have to be settled by the House of Representatives. There have been many examples of faithless electors in American history, including ten as recently as 2016. We won't know until December 17 when the electors cast their votes. If the result is a tie, we won't know the winner till early January 2025 when the new House is seated. Markets don't seem to care who is elected. But the political turbulence around Biden's replacement nevertheless catalyzed a highly volatile correction that ended up driving a buying opportunity. It could happen again.