On the June Jobs Report

Payrolls beat consensus expectations, but the two prior months were revised substantially lower. Wage growth was strong, but lower than last month’s red-hot number that was revised higher. The unemployment rate rose above 4%, but due to the growth of the labor force – slightly less than half of new entrants were not immediately employed. The foreign-born population and foreign-born employment declined, and native-born rose. These numbers are not seasonally adjusted, and don’t reflect reality. The continuing outperformance by the payroll survey over the household survey suggests immigrant employment is still strong, because payrolls are better at picking up hiring of illegals. Biden’s border proclamation was made only a month ago, so it can’t possibly have had even the slightest effect on June’s numbers. This is a Fed-friendly jobs report, with the money-market curve shifting slightly to the dovish in the wake of the data release.