Oil Weirdly in Balance

Altogether, production growth in the Americas will be about 1 million barrels per day this year. Members of the original OPEC cartel that are not participating in the current OPEC+ group will add about a half-million barrels. This leaves OPEC+, which is currently over-producing by about a half-million barrels, with limited production growth options – while demand likely expands by 2 million barrels. With the Saudi-led group having postponed most of its quota increases to 2025 instead of 2024 to give it time to rein in over-producers, we think oil stays in our originally forecasted range of $70 to $85.