On the Margin: Bullard Now! Manchin Not!

Bullard is calling for the Fed to cut rates at the March FOMC meeting. He was the first and most forceful to call for large and rapid hikes in 2022. This could be a catalyst now, as it was then, for a transformation of the consensus. Manchin says he will not run for president. With Hogan announcing for Maryland senator, this leaves the No Labels Unity Ticket without its two most prominent potential candidates. It changes the Senate landscape, opening the door to an independent candidacy by Manchin in West Virginia that might save the seat for Democrats, but putting Maryland in play for the GOP. The canonical alternative for the top of the Unity Ticket is Romney. A Haley/Phillips ticket would pair the two remaining primary challengers to the major party front-runners. Publicly, No Labels says it is open to Haley, privately they say they are not. Meanwhile, the Unity Ticket continues to work toward ballot registration in all 50 states.