On the May Jobs Report

 A huge payroll beat stands on the shoulders of upward revisions to the prior two months. But the household survey showed almost as many employment losses as the payroll survey showed gains. The payroll survey’s result is more consistent with our model based on other contemporaneous labor market indicators. And when the household survey is re-tabulated on a payroll basis, the employment gains are even larger than the payroll gains. We are confident that the household survey is not indicative of the onset of recession. Powell and Jefferson have signaled unambiguously there will be no rate hike at the June FOMC, styling it as a “skip.” This morning’s jobs data doesn’t change that, with the Fed focusing on the unemployment rate, which rose, and wage gains, which cooled. There will be no hike in June. It won’t be a skip. It will be the end.