Oil Markets One Year On from the Ukraine Shock

Russian sanctions will finally bite in oil and refined product markets this year. The G7 price caps will be breached – making importers take sides. Some will strictly follow the West’s rules and stop importing cheaper Russian crude oil and products. Others will turn to the shadow fleet and keep importing Russian crude with no paperwork. And a few will try to deal with the bureaucratic tangles and possible penalties of continuing to import sanctioned crude and petroleum products. As Russian supplies are taken off the market with crude oil and diesel inventories low, global prices will rise as the West continues to convert fossil fuel refineries to renewable fuels production.