How Trump’s Red Wave Got Aborted

District-level voting data and exit polls permit us now to calculate with high certainty that the GOP’s poor mid-term performance was due to two issues – Trump and abortion. Trump-endorsed candidates statistically reduced correlation between GOP vote-share and district partisan tilt, suggesting that their seemingly strong win/loss record is more than explained simply by being Republicans. Half the GOP losses in Republican-tilting districts were Trump endorsees; none of the GOP wins in Democratic-tilting districts were. Trump endorsees for Senate and for governors were net losers in swing states critical for presidential victory and congressional control. Abortion rights motivated Democratic voters who hadn’t had to vote on them since Roe v. Wade 49 years ago. For GOP voters, it is now a matter of relative indifference. Inflation was a more important issue overall, but didn’t affect the results because both GOP and Democratic candidates are opposed to it. As long as the GOP at least narrowly controls the House there is no important economic or market impact from the election. 2024 presents a significant opportunity for GOP gains in the Senate, which could unlock important pro-growth legislation. But the party must somehow take Trump off the board. For Democrats, the game is to keep Trump on the board (while still vilifying him), and to be effective on abortion rights but not so effective as to remove it as a motivating issue.