Tax Hikes: The House Has Many Manchins

Chances for tax hikes are fading fast. Manchin’s op-ed in the Journal Friday calls for a “pause” in the $3.5 trillion reconciliation bill, a gift of time and political cover for House Dems who oppose it. Needing to pass a continuing resolution to prevent a government shutdown by month-end, and pass Hurricane Ida relief – and fold in suspension of the debt ceiling – reconciliation can’t be processed on the House floor before the September 27 deadline for considering the Bipartisan Infrastructure Act. Infrastructure and bipartisanship are popular in swing districts and reconciliation on a party-line vote is toxic, so dissident Dems are eager to vote on infrastructure first so that they can vote against reconciliation. Progressives are threatening to vote against infrastructure – but they want the Infrastructure Act too. Even if they vote against it, their votes can be replaced by GOP votes. Dem media allies have broken cover and are now describing reconciliation in the most expansive progressive terms. That’s an advance obituary celebrating a noble lost cause.