What the Heck is Trump Thinking?

There’s a broad-based relief rally in equities and Treasury yields, as markets take on board vaccine and therapeutic breakthroughs and an election apparently settled without worst-case anti-growth implications. It all supports the continuation of a sustainable V-shaped recovery. But the election isn’t really over until Trump concedes. Why is he not doing so? He may sincerely believe there was fraud, and that he is entitled to pursue a remedy. He may just see it as a free option. And he may see a reasonably simple path to pulling it off. He can win or tie by flipping just three of the six disputed states in any of eleven combinations, provided that one of Pennsylvania, Georgia or Michigan are included. That's an improbably heavy list. Flipping the three states with the narrowest vote differences – or just tying them up in litigation – produces a perfect tie, which throws it to the House, where Trump would easily win thanks to GOP gains.