On the October Jobs Report

An upside surprise in payrolls despite upward revisions, and a surprise drop in the unemployment rate despite an expansion of the labor force. The monthly pace of jobs growth matched last month's, throwing into question Powell's repeated claim that the pace is slowing, thus requiring more fiscal stimulus. This strong labor market performance was achieved despite an increase in social distancing after Trump tested positive for Covid in early October. Hours worked have recovered more than the number of jobs, pointing to the need for more hiring to sustain an exhausting level of economic activity. Disability claims have continued to fall despite the sharp recession, making more persons available for work. Six months after the lockdown recession trough, the number of long-term unemployed is finally rising. The political clamor for stimulus arises because these people not only suffer from unemployment, but they have done so for a long time.