Our Hot Take on the Election

No blue wave, no lurch to the left. A relief, if not a surprise. By not carrying Florida, Biden failed to become the prohibitive favorite on election night. The GOP will likely retain Senate control, which takes the worst-case policy risks off the table including corporate and individual tax hikes. Trump has declared war, claiming that victory is being stolen from him, and invoking the Supreme Court to prevent a fraudulent process. The war-zone states are Georgia, Michigan, North Carolina, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin. As of this writing Trump leads in all but Michigan and Wisconsin, where he trails very narrowly. Trump can afford to lose any one, but not any two. If election results in these states are sufficiently delayed, we expect widespread protests that could hold back completing a V-shaped economic recovery.