An October surprise in our presidential election prediction model

The best quarter in history for GDP is offset by the run-off of Q2-2020 stimulus and relief payments, which cut personal income growth in half. On net, our model goes from predicting a Trump landslide to a near tie, with Trump still favored. This is consistent with our expectation that this election will be drawn out over weeks or months amid fraud, recriminations and litigation. The Supreme Court will likely have to intervene several times, and Barrett could be the tie-breaker. That could trigger national discord potentially leading to more urban unrest, and all of it disruptive to markets.