Zoom conference call with election law expert Richard Pildes

Thursday, October 8, 2020
Donald L. Luskin

Black swans with fat tails. This election could be even stranger than you already think. 

Update to Strategic View

If either candidate dies or becomes incapacitated before the election, or after the election yet before the Electoral College meets to select the president, then the relevant political party would have to put forward a successor. This is straightforward legally, but may entail intra-party wrangling that would cause electors to defect from the official choice, denying any candidate a 270-vote majority -- throwing the election to the House. This is yet another path – alongside contested recounts of mail-in ballots, and states attempting to send multiple slates of electors – to a "contingent election." In the House, the GOP will likely control more state delegations in 2021, which would likely result in Trump’s re-election. But Speaker Pelosi has maneuvers she may employ to deny seating to critical representatives, throwing an already difficult election into complete chaos.