What to Watch on Election Night and Beyond

Biden would become the prohibitive favorite on election night if he carries Florida and one of either North Carolina or Arizona. If Trump is the winner, it won’t be known for a week or more when mail-in ballots are qualified and counted in battleground states he carried in 2016. All else equal he can afford to lose two of Michigan, Wisconsin and Pennsylvania, but not all three. Even if Biden wins Florida-plus-one, Trump could offset that by winning a state Clinton carried in 2016 such as Nevada, where results will be delayed by very heavy utilization of mail-in ballots. December 8 is the “safe harbor” date by which the Supreme Court will likely end litigation and recounts, as it did in Florida in 2000. December 14 is the date state electors cast their Electoral College ballots, and this is when we will know whether the president and vice-president will have to be selected in a “contingent election” in the new House and Senate in 2021.