RBG RIP, the Election, and the Markets

We mourn the passing of Ruth Bader Ginsburg, a champion of liberty. The vacancy on the Supreme Court worsens the risk of destabilization that has already contributed to the present correction in equities. An 8-member court could deadlock, and fail to intervene as it did in 2000 if the presidential election is so delayed by litigation that the Electoral College cannot choose, throwing the decision to the House of Representatives under the 12th Amendment. Democrats are already making the mistake of overplaying their hands with threats. Trump’s optimal play is to pick a non-white female mainstream conservative like Florida’s Barbara Lagoa, hoping he can bait Democrats, particularly Harris, to treat her as badly as they treated Kavanaugh. Risk of GOP defections makes the timing tricky. Biden is more than ever forced to risk debating Trump but could claim infection with Covid-19 to save face while avoiding it.