On the July Jobs Report

Donald L. Luskin
Friday, August 2, 2019
An ordinary July, except that it kicks off the eleventh year of the business cycle expansion.
Strategic view: 

Payrolls met expectations, but that was thanks to substantial downward revisions to the prior two months. But even at that, this was an ordinary July, despite it being the first month in the eleventh year of this business cycle expansion. The unemployment rate ticked up, though the reported rounded number was unchanged, because of labor force growth. The data internals were strong, with long-term unemployment falling sharply, and the share of involuntary part-time workers falling to a new cycle low. Earnings growth was unchanged from last month, and gives no particular ammunition to either hawks or doves on the Fed.