On the French Presidential Primary

Donald L. Luskin
Monday, April 24, 2017
The Establishment split the vote with the Nazis and the Commies. A message to the EU.
Strategic view: 

Centrist Macron and separatist-right Le Pen move to the French presidential run-off, with Macron the heavy favorite, but with at least a distant systemic threat to the fragile euro still hanging over the global economy. The immediate reaction of markets has been risk-on, but the election news was generally in-line with expectations, perhaps leaving as the weekend’s surprise Trump’s tweet about tax cuts to be announced Wednesday. Both Macron and Le Pen performed slightly worse than indicated in polls; Fillon did better, and Mélenchon performed as expected. Overall, radicals on the left and right both performed better than expected, and together captured half of votes cast. This was another revolutionary devolutionary election that sends the European Union an important warning about the need to improve accountability and growth prospects.