Elections Have Consequences
The last debate is over. While Trump could still pull a Brexit-like upset, it looks like Clinton will win. Clinton’s policies are all growth-negative, and her attempts to carry them out will be in a poisoned atmosphere of thwarted hunger for change, resentment after a brutal election and downright corruption – all of which will erode economic confidence. The GOP will very likely hold the House, and possibly the Senate too, which will brake the worst of the policy mistakes. But the House will likely be radicalized, leading to debt ceiling crises and government shutdowns. We’re not pulling any triggers until we see the election outcome, but we are very cautious here.