Trump’s the One
Trump, barring mishap, is the candidate. We predict he will win the general election. The next phase politically is to see how the GOP establishment deals with the game-theoretic decision of either riding the Trump tiger, or fighting it. We think the logic of minimax points to lining up behind Trump. But there are major uncertainties for markets here, perhaps motivating the present correction in equities – uncertainty if he will win or lose, with each possibility leading to its own different world of further uncertainty. One thing for certain: this puts the Fed on hold at least until December.