What you're not hearing about who to blame for today's CPI

The White House warned yesterday that this morning's CPI would be high, driven by high oil prices -- which is how it turned out. But they were quick to blame high oil prices on the Russian invasion of Ukraine. The Biden administration's anti-oil bias has to share some culpability -- and that factor is not likely to be transient. But the geopolitical risk premium in oil based on the fragility of Russian supply is the main issue. Looking through oil prices, inflation's momentum has reversed, with key sectors like used cars actually contributing an offsetting element of deflation. Fed policy has no culpability, yet it is being held out as the solution. The risk now is that the Fed will inadvertently cause a recession by fighting an inflation it didn't cause, just when it is finally proving to be transitory.