What you're not hearing about what caused today's inflation, and where it's going

Since 2017, federal debt growth and M2 money growth have been highly correlated, and in turn M2 growth has been even more highly correlated with core inflation, with a 13-month lag. With no new major spending initiatives in over a year, debt and M2 growth are decelerating. The regression equation calculates that in 13 months core CPI will be 2.49%, slightly below the Fed's target when stated in CPI terms. Yellen's claim that she tried to reduce the size of the American Rescue Plan for the sake of controlling inflation is irrelevant, because that reduction would have had little impact on M2 growth. If no relief or stimulus spending had happened, we'd still be in a depression, but inflation would be only 3.13%, heading for 1.19% in 13 months.