What you're not hearing about the paradox of the so-called "second wave" of Covid-2019

Monday, July 6, 2020
Donald L. Luskin

The sheer number of tests doesn't explain the paradox of the rise in cases and the fall in mortalities. It's the kind of tests, not the quantity.

Update to Strategic View

Trump isn't wrong that the rising number of tests is related to the so-called "second wave" of new cases, but it's an incomplete explanation. The rising positivity rate seems to contradict it, but if backwardly applied it would imply vastly more cases in the past then we knew. Sample bias in the testing universe is the explanation. With employers testing workers now, younger and asymptomatic persons are testing positive, but they are at little risk of death. Repeat tests are double- and triple-counted. This dynamic is understood in Washington and the states, so as long as fatalities do not rise alarmingly, there is no chance of lockdowns coming back and interfering with the V-shaped recovery.