Something for everyone. Powell will love it that the unemployment rate ticked up, because he doesn't want so many people working. We will love it because there were almost three times as many new payrolls as there were new worker (we like it when people are working).
What you're not hearing about how Jay Powell is looking at today's jobs report
Friday, November 4, 2022
Did we gain jobs in October or lose them? And what does it have to do with inflation anyway?
Update to Strategic View
The October jobs report was full of contradictions and ambiguities that make the Fed's job harder. Payroll growth was strong, but the weakest this year. Employment in the household survey actually contracted, and the unemployment rate rose across the bar, "inclusive" to every majority and minority group. Job openings are off-peak, but rising even as the Fed amps up its tightening regime. Wage growth is high, but decelerating -- and it is dominated by job-changers who are contributing to productivity growth. Such cross-currents explain the FOMC's ambivalent and confusing position, with no clear data-signals emerging after four back-to-back historic rate hikes. Powell may hint at a higher terminal rate for the cycle, but the Fed has bought the gift of time during which these data ambiguities can resolve, perhaps without recession, and inflation rates can fall.