What you're not hearing about the Fed gearing up to taper

Thursday, May 20, 2021
Donald L. Luskin

Powell was caught in a lie. But this is just outcome-based guidance.

Update to Strategic View

The April FOMC minutes contained a surprising sentence indicating that some participants are preparing to talk about tapering asset purchases in the face of rapid economic recovery. This is a complete contradiction to Powell's statement at the press conference that they are "not talking about talking about it." Nevertheless, it is only consistent with the outcome-based guidance on asset purchases put in place in December FOMC. It is constructive for markets to see the Fed specify that it is serious about reducing purchases when sufficient recovery makes them no longer necessary.