If Biden is replaced, it will be an uncertainty event that will discomfit markets.
What you’re not hearing about the Biden/Trump debate (just the facts)
Monday, July 1, 2024
We look closely at what both candidates said about jobs, growth, the stock market and inflation.
Update to Strategic View
Biden is correct that more than 15 million jobs have been added during his term, but Trump is right that he is not accounting for post-pandemic “bounceback.” Adjusted, jobs growth is still slightly superior, likely due to immigration. Adjusting for “bounceback,” real growth under Biden is similar but slightly below Trump’s record. Stock market performance looks similar in nominal terms, but inflation-adjusting makes Trump’s record vastly better – which is astonishing considering that there was a depression during his term. Inflation was low during Trump’s entire term, and exploded with Biden in office. But the money supply growth that caused the inflation under Biden happened mostly under Trump, thanks to two stimulus bills passed with the help of a Democratic House. Biden’s stimulus bill didn’t help, but was not decisive.