Just when you thought there were no more black swans in this presidential election...
What you’re not hearing about the actual data on Trump’s true position in the polls
Monday, October 28, 2024
It’s no conspiracy theory. The polls have gotten better, but Trump really does underpoll.
Update to Strategic View
It is casually believed that Trump underpolls. It is true, and the effect is very large. Even though Trump won in 2016 and lost in 2020, the polls underestimated him both times. The polls improved from their massive errors in 2016 to smaller, but still large, errors in 2020. Trump is ahead in the polls nationally, and in every battleground state – but by tiny margins within statistical error. Even assuming the rate of improvement in underpolling from 2016 and 2020 continues in 2024, Trump will win by much more than the narrow leads he now shows. Improbably, he would win the popular vote in 2024, even though he lost it in 2016 (when he nevertheless won the Electoral College vote) and in 2020 (when he didn’t). He would win all seven battleground states except Georgia and North Carolina.