What you’re not hearing about why a 4.5%-plus 10-year Treasury yield is actually a good thing

Treasury yields above 4.5% are a return to levels not seen since 2017, before the Global Financial Crisis.  Until March 2022, the recovery in yields from all-time historic lows in the pandemic was entirely due to inflation expectations; year yields stayed negative until the US economy recovered from the false recession of Q1 and Q2 2002. Since then inflation expectations have fallen and real yields have risen, reflecting a restoration of the kind of growth expectations that prevailed before the era of “secular stagnation” that followed the GFC. Higher yields have almost always been associated with higher growth expectations. They are not likely due to an impending credit crisis driven by debts and deficits. If they were, the dollar would not be strong, and currency hedges like gold and bitcoin would not be weak.