What you’re not hearing about Wednesday’s FOMC

Fed-speak points to two more rate hikes this year, the first at Wednesday’s FOMC. But the curve and the consensus is calling for one and done, and that’s probably right. We don’t rule out a surprise “pause” or “skip.” The FOMC skipped in June for the express purpose of acquiring more information about the economy. Since then, three-quarters of the data releases have pointed to lower inflation and economic cooling. So if the FOMC skipped before, why would they not skip again since the data they said they were waiting for points to that? June’s skip may reflect a schism on the Committee, which will only have worsened. If there is a hike Wednesday it might draw a dissent – which would surely signal the end of the hiking cycle.