What you’re not hearing about the One Big Beautiful Bill
It’s big. It’s beautiful. It’s mostly permanent. And there’s much for supply-siders to love.
Update to Strategic View
The One Big Beautiful Bill will deliver $262 billion in net tax cuts in 2026 versus the status quo. At 83 bp of GDP, it is a very large tax cut and a great deal of stimulus. For all the publicity given to silly populist sops like no taxes on tips, some of the largest tax cuts, such as immediate expensing of business investment and research, have powerful supply-side incentive properties, and are effectively front loaded. Some provisions, mostly the least pro-growth, sunset in 2028 in time for the next presidential election. Most are permanent, including immediate expensing and the rates and brackets associated with the 2017 tax cuts. Tariffs could be a large countervailing tax hike for next year, but the Supreme Court is likely to find most of them to be unlawful.