What you’re not hearing about the Omicron variant
The South African doctor who discovered it says it is milder – and the US says no more lockdowns.
Update to Strategic View
Fear porn abounds concerning the Omicron variant, with the usual claims of high transmissibility and resistance to vaccine. But the South African doctor who discovered it did so because her Covid patients were experiencing anomalously mild symptoms. Higher transmissibility was claimed for Delta, too, yet empirical evidence doesn’t support it. The risk is not Omicron, but panic leading to mandated shutdowns. Empirical evidence over the whole course of the pandemic shows no relation between shutdowns and control of Covid cases growth. The Biden administration has explicitly said there will be no new lockdowns. The residual risk is that individuals will pull back from economic activity out of fear or prudence, as they did in Q2-2021 during the Delta case-wave. There is likely a buy-the-dip opportunity coming, because investors – and the public – are tougher, less fearful and more skeptical.