Surprises of 2023 Volume 3: What you're not hearing about the boom in generative AI

ChatGTP and "generative artificial intelligence" have replaced cryptocurrency as the target of curiosity and technology optimism among clients. It is a bullish sentiment indicator that there is already a next next thing after last year's speculative reckoning. Machine creation of code could lead to even stronger AI. Secularly, machine creation of writing, art and other seemingly uniquely human products opens the door to replacement of white collar jobs in the knowledge economy. Today's generative intelligence output is superficially impressive, but subject to error and fatal imperfection in facts, interpretation and usefulness. But when improved generative AI coding skills create improved AI, it would have the ability to hack into critical systems in finance, power and security. Such growth curves can arrive suddenly and unexpectedly, so this should be considered a potential black swan in the same class as Russian use of nuclear weapons or Chinese invasion of Taiwan.