Replay of Zoom conference call with West Point's Dr. David Frey, on Russian atrocities in Ukraine

Tuesday, May 3, 2022
Donald L. Luskin

The structure of Russia's army and Putin's control make atrocities inevitable.

Update to Strategic View

Putin's rhetoric underpinning the invasion of Ukraine is genocidal and antisemitic; he claims that Russia is defending itself against fascism. The army has been told that the Ukrainian people will greet them as liberators, so the robust defensive response is interpreted as betrayal. The Russian army is heavy on high-tech weapons, and light on the basics such as logistics and training, and completely unequipped for urban warfare. There is no military police structure to regulate the army or its mercenary units, most non-commissioned officers are young and inexperienced, and the culture of is one of punishment rather than reward. Corruption is rife in military contracting, leading to inferior equipment and provisions. Troops had to spend a cold winter camped at the border, and then the actual invasion came as a surprise to many, so poorly had they been prepared. In such a poorly equipped, untrained and brutally treated army, atrocities are inevitable, and the only question is why the West has been surprised by them. In this framework, we can't rule out Putin demonstrating -- but not using -- a nuclear weapon. More likely, even higher-powered non-nuke weapons might be deployed, making the ultimate atrocity.