A conversation on Constitutional options for solving the debt ceiling crisis, with Professors Buchanan and Dorf

Wednesday, April 26, 2023
Donald L. Luskin

Biden may have to choose the "lowest-megaton nuclear option," which could end up being very bullish for bonds.

Update to Strategic View

If the Congress fails to suspend or increase the debt ceiling, Biden will face a trilemma of unconstitutional choices. If he instructs the Treasury to keep issuing debt, he will do so in violation of the debt ceiling, usurping Congress's constitutional authority to borrow. If he unilaterally raises taxes, he would usurp Congress's constitutional authority to tax. If he does neither, he would have to prioritize among spending demands, violating the constitutional demand to faithfully execute the laws. He can't do nothing, and he can't do anything -- so he will have to choose the least-bad option. Buchanan and Dorf argue that issuing debt in excess of the ceiling is the "lowest-megaton nuclear option," and it could be defended in court -- or in impeachment proceedings -- as bowing to Section 4 of the 14th Amendment, which effectively prohibits default. Such issuance might be shunned by markets who would see it as second-class debt, but buying it at a discount would be a stellar opportunity because surely it will be paid off once the dust settles. If the president were to prevail in such a scenario, it would effectively neuter the debt ceiling once and for all, making US debt all the more credit-worthy.