Federal Reserve - 2019-04-30
On the May FOMC
Trump is right, and if inflation stays “wonderfully low,” even Powell will agree to cut rates.
When Reagan Went to China
Xi Jinping shows his love of Game of Thrones but warns reality must not mirror fantasy
Global Equity Risk Premia - 2019-04-28
Has the Recession Been Cancelled?
Let’s not go overboard. As Don Luskin of Trend Macrolytics points out, beneath today’s headline GDP number, growth in consumer spending and business investment was not as strong as we’d like. But overall the economy continues to show a remarkable vitality that has been especially surprising to the Democratic economic establishment.
What you're not hearing about Q1-2019 GDP
The bond market is wrong if it sees recession -- but this was no 3.2% quarter.
The Perfect Moment to Take Out Iran
A "Saudi call" and a million more barrels/day from the Permian mean little upside risk for oil.
What you're not hearing about oil and the Iran sanctions
Taking more of Iran's production off the market won't cause a shortage, it will prevent a glut.