An economic model developed by investor Donald Luskin suggests that Trump would receive 340 electoral votes, significantly more than the 270 needed to win the presidency.

But he cautioned that the new tariffs presented an “unlikely but credible nightmare scenario” in which China spiraled into a recession. That could then lead to a downturn in the United States and erode the president’s relative strength on the economy.

“It’s not that we can’t take China down,” Luskin said. “It’s that we can’t take China down without taking ourselves down.”

Economist Donald Luskin discusses how the Treasury Department declared China as a currency manipulator.