The trades threatening the Treasury market
TrendMacro conversation with Alex Durante on modeling the economic impact of the Trump tariffs
They reduce GDP, the capital stock, and jobs. Other than that, they're a great idea.
Oil - 2025-04-10
US CPI/PPI - 2025-04-09
US Unconventional CPI - 2025-04-09
High-Freq Data and DOGE Monitor - 2025-04-09
Coalition of the Compelled
The Great Liquidation: What the 1914 Crisis Reveals about Foreign Selling of U.S. Assets
Will the Trump Tariffs Be Inflationary?
It’s tricky. They will feel inflationary, and CPI will confirm it. But the Fed’s PCE won’t.