What is the Tariff Endgame?
After the Supreme Court, tariffs will be high, but markets will think they are low. Trump wins.
After the Supreme Court, tariffs will be high, but markets will think they are low. Trump wins.
Trump’s latest threat to fire Powell is just another trick to get your attention, with the Supreme Court having virtually said he can’t do it. Powell is only one vote anyway. Warsh has thrown his hat in the ring to replace Powell, with a mixed message of dovish rate cuts and hawkish quantitative tightening. The economy doesn’t need rate cuts – with unemployment and inflation at target, the current funds rate must be about neutral. Stocks have shrugged off tariff scares, but they would likely be higher without those scares.
Why is EOG calling the top in shale drilling while buying more shale properties?
The Supreme Court will have to decide whether a 50-year trade deficit is an unusual emergency, and whether to regulate means to tax.