The Price of the Pause
With the Fed on pause, the equilibrium funds rate is now arguably above 6%.
With the Fed on pause, the equilibrium funds rate is now arguably above 6%.
The FOMC fiddles while inflation burns -- and bonds applaud.
At 4%, bonds are priced on fantasies that growth is slowing and that the Fed is fighting inflation.
A mere data revision triggered a bond market rout -- and there are more revisions ahead.
Bush missed the whisper number last night. Time to start whispering about October 8.
Political markets, capital markets and labor markets are all recovering from extreme disequilibriums.
Markets are assessing the dangerous interaction of a Kerry win and a Fed mistake.
The bad news is that oil is at $55. The good news is that the Fed isn't panicking.
Some important things are broken. But stocks are priced as though they can never be fixed.
Democrats say they will litigate the election -- and markets believe them.