Projections for negative growth and below-target inflation make a rate cut a certainty.

A seemingly stronger economy allows cliff brinksmanship, and makes a GOP cave likelier.

Passing a pre-emptive tax hike bill in the House would restore the balance of terror.

He's not conceding to Berlusconi -- he's depriving him of political momentum.

So much for the Fed "targeting jobs." Turns out inflation is still a binding constraint.

Boehner offers hikes to tax rates and the debt ceiling. Where's the upside in that?

A tactical retreat that could be a better last-minute safety valve as the cliff approaches.

Higher taxes, yes. But with "Plan B" the tax code will no longer be permanently temporary.

The volatility event may have arrived, and the doomsday scenario rears its very ugly head.

Avoid the cliff, damage growth. Go off the cliff, kill growth. Only least-bad outcomes now.