Let's Hope the Politicians are Lying
Boehner and Obama both say we're heading for default. Game theory likely says otherwise.
On Yellen for Fed Chair
It means Obama is scared. The GOP offer to put sequesters into play will start negotiations.
Down to the Wire, and Beyond
Almost there: another 2013 risk-event with no contagion -- plus the GOP gets a do-over.
On the Shutdown and Debt Limit Deal
A contrarian case: the GOP won! Either way, stalwart markets prove the era of risk-off is over.
On the September Jobs Report
Jobs Tuesday is eerily like every Jobs Friday in the Not So Great Expansion.
Europe's Ghosts of Stress Tests Past
A risk-off spasm over ECB bank tests ignores the euro area's quantum turnaround.
Inflation in Fashion
A less risky economy, Yellen, and the politics of her confirmation put inflation back in play.
On the October FOMC
An increasingly Yellen-dominated FOMC takes a victory lap. Why aren't markets happier?
On the Elections in New Jersey, Virginia and Alabama
We told you -- post-shutdown, the GOP can hold the House and make gains in the Senate.
On Q3 GDP
Big upside surprise, small downpayment on the output gap. Therein lies the opportunity.