In a note put out yesterday, Lorcan Roche Kelly of Trend Macrolytics has a slightly contrarian take on what the ECB should do tomorrow. First of all, he does think there will be a rate cut, whereas previously he was skeptical.

BUT, he argues that a rate cut isn't the right tool for the job, and won't accomplish anything because of how broken everything is. Instead, the ECB needs to open up new channels to extend credit to Small and Medium Sized Enterprises, especially in the periphery where traditional monetary policy channels are impaired.

Now we come to what happened at last week's ECB announcement and presser. Most of the subsequent commentary focused on the main refinancing rate cut, the hint of a negative deposit rate, and the commitment to spur lending to small- and medium-sized companies.

But our pal Lorcan Roche Kelly of TrendMacro emphasised something different in his latest note:

Lorcan Roche Kelly, chief Europe strategist at TrendMacro, a US fund advisory firm, said the euro-area GDP numbers were at odds with ECB lending data, which showed continuing reductions in credit to small and medium- sized companies.

Without increasing credit to this critical sector, any return to vigorous growth was nearly impossible.

Now that Bernanke has tapered twice in succession and in equal $10 billion increments, it could reduce Yellen's flexibility if circumstances change, warns Donald Luskin of Trend Macrolytics.

"Bernanke has handed Yellen a fait accompli, an established policy trend that will be difficult for her to contradict," he told clients.

"To have only a 6% correction is a great sign of strength," says Donald Luskin, chief investment officer at TrendMacro. "It is telling us that U.S. stocks might have been tired but didn't want to go down. They just took a little nap."

..."The economy is not sprinting, but it's finally back on its feet," Luskin says.

Fallout from the sanctions -- and from Russia's destabilization of Ukraine -- could be far-reaching. The worst-case economic scenarios are fairly awful, says Donald Luskin, chief investment officer for Trend Macrolytics.

"We think the feasible worst-case is a war of strong trade sanctions, depriving Russia and Europe of mutual trade," he says. "That would hit both sides hard -- Russia, because if derives 12.3% of GDP from exports to Europe, and Europe because it sources a significant share of its natural gas from Russia."

Big round numbers like 1900 are often tough to barrel through easily..

Don Luskin, chief investment officer at TrendMacro, says the recent market weakness is history.

"Round numbers are meaningless, but it's meaningful to make all-time highs," says Luskin. "The winter correction is over. Spring has sprung. It's going to be a very good year. The sector rotation out of growth stocks that had everyone scared in April is over, and in fact has reversed itself. "

"People waited in line to buy Alibaba because they think CEO Jack Ma is the smartest man in the world," says Donald Luskin, chief investment officer at TrendMacro. "Hey, everybody -- the guy you think is the smartest man in the world thinks it's a good time to sell stocks. And you want to buy? Really?"

The geographic shift of the Ebola crisis to U.S. soil in recent days has also put investors on edge, as concern about the spread of the virus and its potential impact on economic growth mounts but with no clear answers evident.

"This is the authentic black swan, the one nobody expected," says Don Luskin, chief Investment officer at TrendMacro. "Markets are experiencing the shock of recognition with Ebola."

Don Luskin, chief investment officer at TrendMacro, says the bad market action tied to sinking oil prices will eventually play out and exhaust itself.