What you’re not hearing about Trump's post-SCOTUS tariff plans

Trump blasted the Supreme Court for overturning his IEEPA tariffs on Friday, and called those who brought the suit “sleazebags.” He claimed repeatedly that other tariff authorities are more powerful, and that he would use them. But he would not have chosen the legally risky gambit of invoking IEEPA if he didn’t think it was his most powerful weapon. He still has Section 232 of the Trade Expansion Act of 1962 and Sections 122, 201 and 301 of the Trade Act of 1974. But these are slow and limited tools, and he has already used them to do much of what they can accomplish. He invoked Section 201 on Friday to impose a 10% global tariff, but it is limited by statute to 150 days. He claimed it would be in addition to the existing 232 tariffs, but the executive order actually exempted goods subject to them and many more such as coffee, beef and other consumer-sensitive goods in an “affordability crisis.” On Saturday he said he would raise it to 15%, but has not actually done so. Trump now has limited tools, and the “affordability crisis” ties his hands. He is talking big in the wake of an embarrassing ruling, but he will deliver little. Over the next couple months, this will sink in and already aggressive forward estimates for US equities will get upgraded as companies are freed of what, as the Supreme Court affirmed, is simply a tax.