What you're not hearing about America's "exploding" trade deficit

The Trump administration has represented in its initial brief to the Supreme Court that a state of emergency exists because of the US goods trade deficit. They say it is "persistent," but the International Emergency Economic Powers Act requires an emergency to be "unusual and extraordinary." They also claim it has "exploded" to $1.2 trillion, or over 40% in five years. Technically true, but this is lying with statistics. Expressed in the usual metric of compound annual growth rate, the goods trade deficit has grown 7.3% per annum -- that's saying the same thing in less provocative language. Either way, it has not "exploded" -- it's been about the same for many years. A $1.2 trillion deficit is only 4.1% as a share of America's $29.2 trillion GDP. The "explosion" of the last five years has been mostly matched by an "explosion" in GDP. The 4.1% share is about the same as it has been for 15 years.