TrendMacro conversation with Haviv Gur on the new geopolitical nexus between Ukraine and Iran
The deal between Trump and Putin is simple and brilliant: we give up Ukraine, Russia gives up Iran.
Update to Strategic View
Gur believes the Trump administration is engineering a grand geopolitical strategy that begins with ending the Ukraine war by ceding territory to Russia, and requiring the residual territory to never join NATO. The price Putin must pay for American acquiescence in this is to withdraw its military support and strategic defense alliance with Iran. The US has already staged B-2 bombers capable of demolishing the Iranian mountains in which its nuclear program is being completed. With Israel running tactical interference, and with Russia having given a green light, the US and Israel end Iran's nuclear ambitions, and likely drive regime change. It's not a coincidence that that the Ukraine negotiations are being sponsored by Saudi Arabia, nor that Saudi has committed to investing $1.3 trillion in the US during Trump's term. Saudi motivated the Abraham Accords in Trump's first term, and stands ready to partner with Israel to remake the Middle East along US-friendly lines. Separately, Israel is non-plussed by Trump's new 17% tariffs, after Israel just dropped its few remaining tariffs on US imports. Israel and the US are structurally incapable of resolving Israel's trade surplus, because the US eagerly imports top-shelf Israeli technology goods that it insists it sell to no others.